It has been a long time

It has been ages since I last posted anything in this blog.....

Well, a conversation I had with my colleague 2 weeks ago prompted this entry.

This colleague of mine was a serious stock investor (which personally i think should be called as a stock speculator instead). He was sharing with me the terms such as ROI, PE, NAV, etc.... He was delighted to share with me that he made a 5% gain in 3 months time, using an initial capital of $10,000. This works out to be $500?

I was impressed initially.

Seriously, I was!

Then suddenly a thought came to my mind.

What if he uses this $10,000 in Horse Racing?

Could he achieved a higher ROI?

Could he achieved more than 5% return with lower risk punts?


Let's switch back to the Horse Racer mentality.

3 months.

Wednesdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays.

16 race meets in a month.

48 race meets in 3 months.

Take an average of 8 races per meet, that works out to be 384 races.

What if he will to place $5 PLACE bet on the 8/5 favourite for each race.

The total outlay would be $1,920 on the bet amount.

Let assume the probability of the race goes his way at 75%.

The returns will be at $8 * 384 * 75% = $2,150.

The ROI will be 11.97%!

Did i rediscovered something here?

This Horse Racer has been dislodged

Almost everything have its place in time, and well, the time is up for me and horse racing.

It is 3 years since on the fateful 2nd day of CNY 2002 that meng suggested we go see see look look in the National Stadium Betting Centre.

Still can remember that day i struck an outsider of $106 in a Malaysian race day.

Horse Racing to me certainly got its ups and downs.

The down and out days which meng, mark and myself had to walk a distance just to catch a bus, to hawker centre for a $2 dinner...

The days which began on a high and ended with a super low...

The days when dreams came true but i didnt won (think it is a Ipoh raceday with Affluence and another grey gelding with the number 1-3)...

The days when a napshot crossed the line first and saved my day (especially at Kranji, Singapore raceday with Dana Boy, a whopping $200+ return from 2 Win and 1 FT on Dana Boy and Zuchero, special thanks to meng, my personal lucky charm in Kranji)...

The days which began on a high and ended with a super high (with mark again on a Malaysian raceday, starting with a $160 win for a staggering $500+ win)

The dreamy day when i woke up to realise i won $200 for a 4 - 6 FT bet (appreciation to my girlfren, now fiance, alicia, on not one and many occasions to deliver the good news)

The dream lost day when one of the forum post a result wrongly for me to jump with overjoy for a supposingly $800+ FT, only to see my FT selection finished 1st and 3rd with the 2nd an EA horse...Colin's Power....

The long distance days when i was in Korea but kept on winning (all thanks to mark)

The not so long distance days when chris, meng, mark and myself shopping in JB and we all missed out of our fav horses upsetting in another Ipoh race day...the so called " D Chee Days " (for the record, D Chee is a jockey, and one of my fav if he rides Nancy)

And of course the ultimate $543 FT win on a Hong Kong raceday with CK Tong on Preservence

These and more hold good memories for me and my buddies...

And since this will be the last post here, the horses that gave me such fond memories must be mentioned here....

Good Prospect of course with Jason Taylor. Who can forget a $400 return on a Win Place bet!

Eagle Phoenix, predictably back to back for 3 consecutive wins (for mark would be 4 times, and mark, i havent forgotten about that 10 Win tickets when i didnt make it in time to place it)

Dana Boy, with Kellady and of course Number 2! All the Way!

Winning Expert for a $160 place.

Humprehy on that upset win over Opposing Force!

Hunii and that numerous occasions which kept on surprising pundits

Mayo Music before it is on form, which i can proudly say that i supported this fellow before the majority of the punters

Ipanema Dancer and Numex which are my girlfren's fav

Motion which failed mark and made $100+ for me

Halo Charles, one of mark's fav

and many others which were wonderful to watch

well, well, guess the time is right to close this chapter,

for the last time,

ALL THE WAY!

Dismayed

Amidst the numerous newspaper article on the casino issues, was surprised that it is a relatively low percentage for betting in horse racing.

I'm surprised.

If the number is true, which may not be the case most of the times, then the dividend payout is miserably low.

We are talking about less than 15% of the population indulge in horse racing, which works out roughly to be 600,000 of our 4 mil population. If everyone of them place only a single Win bet on each race, then it works out to be 3mil of bets with STC! Which is very neat profit for the organisation! After less the price money of sightly above $100K, which is only a very insignificant portion of the total bets... Given the benefit of the doubt, maybe another portion will goes to the maintaining and upkeeping of the infrastructure and the system, but the point is, the low dividend payout is simply illogical!

We have heard that STC is trying to bring more hobbist to the sport, but what is more effective than higher odds! The people at the STC should realised that it is the money that attracts people to the game, not the varities of bettings.

***

Seems like there's not a day goes by without seasoned punters talking about the poor management decision by STC.....

The 'LIVE telecast over SCV' was one issue that highlights the need for a complete change in STC management.

Telebet Account Holders were invited to subscribe SCV as according to STC, they will telecast 'LIVE' races in April. However, as widely anticipated, they did a U turn on that quoting technical reasons, withoutany committement in resolved dates! Dismayed!

Now we know that Astro will be offering 'LIVE' races for all Malaysian fixtures. Seems like our Malaysian counterparts are finally one step better and advanced than our self proclaimed 'International Standard' STC!

***

Well, my interest in Horse Racing has nose dived quite a fair bit since my lucky FT win on 23 Feb 05 (Happy Valley). $543 exactly. Which i must say that there is a huge discrepancies between the STC payout and the HKJC payout.HKJC pays roughly HKD4000, which converts to around SGD1000.... Kind of being cheated.

And not forgetting the numerous time we saw a STC $6/$5 odds for a hot favourite when bookies can offer at least $10/$8!

Think i will join in with the majority in Soccer Betting....

Maybe i should change the Title to ' One day in the life of a Soccer Punter '.

If only i've sticked to Win Place...

Review of last week (15 Jan 05) selections. Saturday E short course all turf racing.

***
Race One OB40 1200m

6) Orange Success 5) Fear Factor 2) Gutsy Star
MISS - (2) Gutsy Star finishing third.

***
Race Two RM 1200m

2) Bradford Star 7) Spec Prince 6) Sky Venture
CLOSE - (6) Sky Venture 1st and (7) Spec Prince 2nd but nothing to shout about.

***
Race Three OB67 1400m

6) Whatmore 12) PolanskiSettled for a more value Forecast Bet.
MISS - (12) Polanski on 2nd

***
Race Four Maiden 1400m

10) Magical Way 5) King's Strike 11) Taiter
MISS - (5) King's Strike on 2nd

***
Race Five CL5D1 1200m

5) Popular 11) Embody 6) Fifth General 8) Magical Bell
TCE STRIKE! - TCE ($158) IN ORDER WITH (8) Magical Bell missing on 4th spot

***
Race Six CL5D2 1200m

7) Royal Pacific 9) James Pony 1) Notthateasy
FT STRIKE - (9) James Pony and (7) Royal Pacific on ONE TWO finishing.

***
Race Seven Open 1600m
LFTK saysSKIP!
NAPSHOT 6) Lim's Reward 7) Disco Master
DIED - Like i said, SKIP!

***
Race Eight CL5 1600m

5) Ibero Amaze 4) Star Spurs 6) Valiant
MISS - (4) Star Spurs came in 2nd though

***
Race Nine OB67 1400m

6) Natupak 8) Pan ExpressClose competition from 10) Road House, 4) Fort Apache and 2) Lucky Luke
MISS - (8) Pan Express is the winner.

Target to be back on track

Second raceday for the year 2005 in Kranji

Got off to a poor start last friday, missing out a couple of the napshot due to last minute self doubt.

So, hope this will put this year horseracing back on track.

Saturday E short course all turf racing.

***

Race One OB40 1200m

HS Chan Recommendation
8) Hommono 9) Leopard Strike 10) Private Stripes
Track-work summary: This should be a weak B40 field. Hommono has been working well for the past month; he can go to the front and win in this weak field.. Leopard Strike impressive at his Tuesday barrier practice. He can run a good race. Private Stripes did well at his gallop this week; he may upset this opening race.

LFTK says
Agree that this is a weak field. However, Hommono is better known to perform on the alternate track. As for Leopard Strike, this horse prefers a wet track and is a late burst type. With barrrier 3, it could be force to be the leader early on and may find itself out of stamina during the short burst home. Private Stripes is 7 years andits ability to cope with the younger pack is a question mark.
6) Orange Success 5) Fear Factor 2) Gutsy Star
Orange Success was a last start 4th to Ninetyfive Sword over the same distance yielding round DLC. Showed capability in maintaining with the middle pack and burst over the last stretch. With ESC this week, could work well for this 4 year old gelding. Fear Factor is one with the consistent track work however the barrier draw is a big disadvantage over such short distance.Gutsy Star track work 2 weeks ago looks promising.

***

Race Two RM 1200m

HS Chan Recommendation
7) Spec Prince**** 6) Sky Venture 3) Gatlin
Track-work summary: Spec Prince has been working like a good horse for the past month; he should be ready to register his first win in this field. Sky Venture did a fair barrier test last month. Gatlin has the speed to lead all the way and upset this race.

LFTK says
Saimee should be back in the winner circle after a long drought period. Just dont see how Gatlin can upset in this field.
2) Bradford Star 7) Spec Prince 6) Sky Venture

***

Race Three OB67 1400m

HS Chan Recommendation
7) Brandry Dry 8) Gunong Naga 9) Titanium
Track-work summary: Brandry Dry is well prepared for this race; he can make it 2 in a row. Gunong Naga is maintaining his winning form. Titanium has been working well; he did a fair barrier trial last week. Polanski looked well for the past week.

LFTK says
Brandry Dry looks great but will be no value. So too will be Gunong Naga with speed demon Alan Ng on board.
6) Whatmore 12) Polanski
Settled for a more value Forecast Bet.

***

Race Four Maiden 1400m

HS Chan Recommendation
11) Taiter 1) High Roller 8) Able Win
Track-work summary: Taiter galloped well last week; he can benefit from S Cheam's claim and run a good race. Newcomer High Roller did well at his barrier trial last week. Able Win did a fair barrier practice on Tuesday.

LFTK says
Any horse can upset in this race. Taiter looks the most promising with its light load. Special Mention goes to King's Strike. Settled for a napshot in Magical Way.
10) Magical Way 5) King's Strike 11) Taiter

***

Race Five CL5D1 1200m

HS Chan Recommendation
5) Popular 11) Embody 9) Easy Way
Track-work summary: This should another weak class 5 filed. Popular worked well on Tuesday; he can sit in a handy position and storm home at the last 250 meters. Embody looked well this week; watch him. Easy Way may go to the front and hang on.

LFTK says
Totally agree with HS Chan
5) Popular 11) Embody 6) Fifth General 8) Magical Bell

***

Race Six CL5D2 1200m

HS Chan Recommendation
7) Royal Pacific*** 11) Monde Golds 12) Sangre Azul
Track-work summary: Royal Pacific has been working well for the past month; he has the ability to handle this field. Last-start winner Monde Golds is maintaining his winning form. 6 year old Sangre Azul galloped well this week; he may upset this race

LFTK says
Royal Pacific has class written all over but it wont be easy with James Pony good track work.
7) Royal Pacific 9) James Pony 1) Notthateasy

***

Race Seven Open 1600m

HS Chan Recommendation
4) Superior Warrior 8) Light Easy 3) Connery
Track-work summary: This should be an interesting race. Superior Warrior galloped like a good horse on Tuesday; he has the ability to handle this field. Trainer Laxon's pair of Light Easy and Connery are
in good order; they are expected to run good races here.

LFTK says
SKIP!

NAPSHOT 6) Lim's Reward 7) Disco Master

***

Race Eight CL5 1600m

HS Chan Recommendation
4) Star Spur 2) Starring 9) Magical Rhythm
Track-work summary: Star Spur galloped well on Tuesday morning; he can run a good race here. Starring galloped well with Seaside City on Tuesday; he may find this distance ideal for his running style. Magical Rhythm did a fair barrier practice on Tuesday; he may upset this field.

LFTK says
Star Spurs should pick up some points this week. Place chance. Nearest opponent in Ibero Amaze.
5) Ibero Amaze 4) Star Spurs 6) Valiant

***

Race Nine OB67 1400m

HS Chan Recommendation
3) Havana Brown 6) Natupak 7) Papakura
Track-work summary: Havana Brown is well prepared for this race; he did 2 impressive barrier practice before this race; he can may it 3 in a row. Natupak is in good order; watch him. Papakura has been working well for the past month.

LFTK says
All hands to Natupak with champion jockey on board. Followed by App Jockey champ on Pan Express
6) Natupak 8) Pan Express
Close competition from 10) Road House, 4) Fort Apache and 2) Lucky Luke

I'm taking a break from it all

got to take a break from the unpredictable and uncontrollable of horse racing...

i'm tired after 18 successive failures in breaking the losing streaks...

this doesnt bores well for me and the yr of 2005 coming in 18 days time...

so much for the my buddy (mark of course, together with meng, buddies for 18! what 18 again, 18 years!) words that birthday guys/ gals will be lucky during the week of their birthdays...

just wondering what's with the number 18? could be it due to the fact i'm not cantonese but hakka, and 18 doesnt works for me?

***

i'm turning away from all the racings, 4ds, totos, big sweeps, soccers n scratch it for now

***

came across an article in TNP yesterday...

HIV EVER ATFER

extract of the news...
"Man tells girlfriend he has HIV
Impressed by honesty, she marries him
They have unprotected sex
She becomes infected"

Plain stupidity is the word i used immediately.

Upmost display of selfishness of man is the conclusion i derived last night.

I cannot believe that the paper even published this story, totally valueless and completely destructive! Imagine if couples start to get themselves infected to show their love!

I say, raising HIV awareness is good, but this is definitely not the way to do it, simply delivering the wrong message.

Even my gal and myself were discussing about the love part, the "to infect or not to infect" and "to leave me or not" kinda topics last nite.....

But that is not the point!

***

Super bored now.

Sitting on my chair, resting my hands on my desk, facing my monitor.... on a monday.

Seems like a long time...

Seems like i havent been updating this blog for the longest time.....

Have a rough time recently on the track, seems that greed had played an major role in the past 2 months of less than impressive returns.

Hope that it is reverse now with the last nite Hong Kong Race 8 Forecast win.

And this is my analysis for this coming friday, 5 Nov 04, Singapore Mixed Racing.

***

Race One - Open Benchmark 40 2000m ESC

9 entries, one glance and all but Navy Commander are contenders.

2000m is a long distance which the jockey's skill and experience will be one of the major considerations. Of which,CARMODY, SIVAN and KELLADY should attracts attention. Also not forgetting the recent form of SAM, which quite impressively, records a number of Win and Place, both Kranji and across the Causeway.

On paper, 2000m should suits Kazam, Yippee Blue Dill, Ashgrove and Cape High.
And taken into consideration the handicapp enjoyed by HK LIM as well as the barrier draw, I must say that YIPPEE BLUE DILL and CAPE HIGH do appears very tempting.
And my selection will be

ASHGROVE to edge out due to the experience of CARMODY, with both CAPE HIGH and YIPPEE following close, with CAPE HIGH outlasting YIPPEE and KAZAM to make a last minute surge to finish in the top 3.

Potential Napshot in Triumph Ahead.

***

Race Two - Maiden 1200m Sand

Not familiar with the horses here, but definitely inside draw would be a great advantage.

Gut feeling in SWIFT VICTORY and TOP THIS BUSINESS.

***

Race Three - Class 5 (1) 1200m ESC

GOOSEBERRY has not finished in the winner's ring for quite sometime now and i expect it to remain the same.

Both MAGICAL BELL and PAN EXPRESS are capable of pulling this with 2 experienced jockeys but for the top impost.

DUBROVNIK is a one hell of an erratic horse and with newly crossover GOON, not much expectation.
One horse really stands out from the rest and that's ROYAL PACIFIC with WK YAN. Nice middle draw means that it willfollows just behing the front runner and made the last minute surge forward during the short straight.

So my selection will be a single heavy bet on FT ROYAL PACIFIC and PAN EXPRESS.

***

Race Four - Class 2 1000m Sand

Too little entries, too short a distance. Payout will be low irregard who wins.
Try DELUSIONAL and SKIP.

***

Race Five - Class 4 1200m Sand

Worrying in E1 GAMGEE. It is better this horse not running or it will upset the race.

ABRAHAM should not having a problem grabbing a PLACE with BEASLEY on top, despite 59KG.

However, contender to win will be JACKSON (SAM), BUTTON (Razali) and OTTELLO (Goon).

***

Race Six - Class 5 (2) 1200m ESC

I like BRIGHT BAMBINO, no explanation. Napshot for the day.

***

Race Seven - Open 1600m ESC

What can i say about this race except it will be exciting!!!

MAYO's pulled an upset, so did FIREHOUSE. EXAGGERATE is one of the top horses locally with MOON SHADOW and QUE EXPRESSION.

Upcoming RAUL with SAIMEE looks threatening, and 1600m is the favourite distance for SPECTRO POWER.

If the turf is yielding to soft, i will personally go for MOON SHADOW and SPECTRO POWER.

Believed that there will be no upset this week, and my selection for TCE will be

BOX MOON SHADOW, SPECTRO POWER and QUE EXPRESSION.

***

Race Eight - Class 5 1600m Sand

Last week i had a dream that I won a PLACE on Tiptronic, so that will be my selection.

***

Race Nine - Open Benchmark 67 1600m ESC

It is high time for SAIMEE to win something, so GREY CARDINAL will be my pick to win this race.

Forecast Bet as follows,

GREY CARDINAL as banker to hit DESTINY PRIZED, SOLDIER OF FORTUNE amd YAAKEEN.

i got such a wonderful girlfren

this is not about horse racing

not even about punting

this is about my girlfren

who happens to be the most wonderful person i know

patiently she waits for me

and as the clock ticks

pass the dinner time and into the supper time

she waited

till i'm done with my work

something i dont really fancy now

and all that is in her mind

was me

how can anyone not be touched

at the show of care and affection

i can tell u i am

and that i want to treat her nice and proper

all the way

for the rest of her and my life